Greece on a tightrope
Antonin, Céline
Greece on a tightrope - 2015.
85
In this article, we analyze the budgetary and banking situation in Greece, as well as the latest economic developments. We then describe the potential consequences if Greece were to leave the euro area. Finally, under the assumption that Greece will remain in the euro area, we present several possible macroeconomic scenarios over the long run (by 2050), focusing on the path to resolving public debt issues. We conclude that the most reasonable scenario is one that involves debt restructuring, which would permanently dispel the specter of a Grexit. This scenario reduces the amount of internal devaluation required to stabilize Greece’s external position. If the Eurogroup were to refuse Greek debt restructuring, then a new assistance program should be implemented quickly. This program should amount to approximately 95 billion euros, and it will prove effective only if Greece is able and willing to run high primary budgetary surpluses in the coming decades. JEL classification:F01, H63, H68.
Greece on a tightrope - 2015.
85
In this article, we analyze the budgetary and banking situation in Greece, as well as the latest economic developments. We then describe the potential consequences if Greece were to leave the euro area. Finally, under the assumption that Greece will remain in the euro area, we present several possible macroeconomic scenarios over the long run (by 2050), focusing on the path to resolving public debt issues. We conclude that the most reasonable scenario is one that involves debt restructuring, which would permanently dispel the specter of a Grexit. This scenario reduces the amount of internal devaluation required to stabilize Greece’s external position. If the Eurogroup were to refuse Greek debt restructuring, then a new assistance program should be implemented quickly. This program should amount to approximately 95 billion euros, and it will prove effective only if Greece is able and willing to run high primary budgetary surpluses in the coming decades. JEL classification:F01, H63, H68.
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