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Overhauling European budget policy

Par : Contributeur(s) : Type de matériel : TexteTexteLangue : français Détails de publication : 2019. Ressources en ligne : Abrégé : Since the inception of the financial crisis, Europe’s budgetary rules have become more complex without delivering better outcomes. Numerous proposals for reform are currently under debate. In particular, fourteen Franco-German economists have proposed rebuilding the fiscal rules around a public expenditure rule with a corrective mechanism for the debt. We analyse the macroeconomic properties of this rule using the iAGS model. While the proposed rule has good counter-cyclical properties in the event of a demand shock or unanticipated inflation, the expenditure rule leads to unrealistic efforts in countries with a debt level that is too far from 60% but with positive structural balances, such as Italy or Portugal. In our view, a fiscal rule, even reformed, will not be enough to break with the synchronization of fiscal policies and move towards true coordination. The European Semester should be a moment when the EU's growth strategy is defined and put in place, defining each country’s contribution to the common objective. JEL Codes: E62, H6, H61
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Since the inception of the financial crisis, Europe’s budgetary rules have become more complex without delivering better outcomes. Numerous proposals for reform are currently under debate. In particular, fourteen Franco-German economists have proposed rebuilding the fiscal rules around a public expenditure rule with a corrective mechanism for the debt. We analyse the macroeconomic properties of this rule using the iAGS model. While the proposed rule has good counter-cyclical properties in the event of a demand shock or unanticipated inflation, the expenditure rule leads to unrealistic efforts in countries with a debt level that is too far from 60% but with positive structural balances, such as Italy or Portugal. In our view, a fiscal rule, even reformed, will not be enough to break with the synchronization of fiscal policies and move towards true coordination. The European Semester should be a moment when the EU's growth strategy is defined and put in place, defining each country’s contribution to the common objective. JEL Codes: E62, H6, H61

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