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The main obstacles that have hindered French activity over the last four years (fiscal austerity, a strong euro, tight financial conditions, and high oil prices) should all fade away in 2015 and 2016. French GDP will grow by 1.4% in 2015, gaining momentum over the course of the year, with corporate investment picking up and the unemployment rate beginning to fall. 2016 will then be the year of recovery, with GDP growth of 2.1% and the creation of nearly 200,000 private sector jobs. The public deficit is expected to be 3.1% of GDP in 2016 (after 3.7% in 2015). This virtuous cycle will only become active if the macroeconomic environment remains favorable and if the government sticks to the budget savings it has already announced. JEL classification:E37, E32.